It was the best of times, it was the worst of times. The Dodgers are currently in first place, but their offense has been positively anemic lately. Their success is largely due to their pitching, something that I had some doubts about about going in. I thought the bullpen would be very good, which they have, and I was confident in Jason Schmidt and (god help me) Derek Lowe at the top of the rotation. My doubts were about Brad Penny, Brett Tomko, and when Schmidt went on the DL, Mark Hendrickson. Going into last night's game, those three, especially Penny and Hendrickson, had pitched far better than I expected. All have mentioned reasons for their improvement, one mechanical, one psychological, and one a little of both, so I decided to take a look at some numbers to see if back up those claims. A small sample size disclaimer does apply, of course.
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Brad Penny - Pitching smarter instead of throwing harder?
| year | ip | era | whip | fip | gb% | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | slga |
| 2004 | 143.0 | 3.15 | 1.22 | 3.37 | 42.7 | 6.99 | 2.83 | 0.76 | 0.382 |
| 2005 | 175.1 | 3.90 | 1.29 | 3.57 | 46.6 | 6.26 | 2.10 | 0.87 | 0.417 |
| 2006 | 189.0 | 4.33 | 1.38 | 3.89 | 43.5 | 7.05 | 2.57 | 0.90 | 0.430 |
| 2007 | 38.1 | 1.64 | 1.30 | 3.59 | 58.0 | 3.52 | 3.99 | 0.00 | 0.307 |
In 2006, if you looked up "loss of composure" in a dictionary, you might have seen Brad Penny's picture next to the definition. He was the angry man of the Dodgers staff last year, appearing to let every perceived slight bother him to the point of distraction. He railed at umpires, his manager, and his teammates. That he had a Jeckyl and Hyde season seems appropriate given the temperament he often displayed. He was very good in the first half, awful in the second. He has since said he had an injury in the second half that prevented him from throwing his splitter properly.
He looked pretty bad this spring, too, and although he said the usual things about spring training stats not meaning anything, I had serious doubts about him. All he's done since is pitch brilliantly (1.64 ERA). Looking at his numbers is a study in contrasts. His WHIP and FIP are about the same as they've ever been. His K/9 innings has plummeted to about half of what it's been in the past, while his BB/9 has gone way up, which are both usually signs that there's a bad moon arisin'. So how is he doing it?
Apparently he's replaced his misfiring splitter with a sinker. Look at the difference in his ground ball percentage this year. He's gone from somewhat of a fly ball pitcher to very much getting his outs on the ground. This has helped in two ways. First, it's very hard to hit a ground ball into the seats. Penny has yet to give up a home run. Second, with all the walks, he does get into trouble occasionally, but it seems like every time he does, he gets a double play to get out of it. Actually, there's a third way it's helped. Keeping the ball on the ground makes it less likely that the other team can take advantage of Pierre's and Gonzo's defensive deficiencies.
His demeanor on the mound has changed, as well. He seems cool, calm, and collected out there, very much in control of himself. Nary a loss of composure to been seen so far. So instead of losing it when things go bad, and trying to get out of bad situations by overthrowing, he's been buckling down and making good pitches. The low ERA is probably due to good luck, but if he keeps to what appears to be his plan, it may not get all that much higher.
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Brett Tomko - Same as he ever was?
| year | ip | era | whip | fip | gb% | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | slga |
| 2004 | 194.0 | 4.04 | 1.34 | 4.05 | 42.0 | 5.01 | 2.97 | 0.88 | 0.414 |
| 2005 | 190.2 | 4.48 | 1.37 | 3.98 | 39.8 | 5.38 | 2.69 | 0.94 | 0.444 |
| 2006 | 112.1 | 4.73 | 1.35 | 4.66 | 37.5 | 6.09 | 2.32 | 1.36 | 0.471 |
| 2007 | 28.2 | 4.40 | 1.67 | 3.74 | 40.0 | 6.90 | 5.33 | 0.31 | 0.387 |
Tomko is here because he had a good spring and a couple of good early outings that gave a little bit of hope that perhaps the change in mechanics he's mentioned might improve his consistency. Since then he's had a couple of outings that weren't so good, so same ol' Tomko. There are a couple of things of note, though. First, he's striking more people out. He has balanced this by also walking more people. The other good thing is that he has only allowed one home run so far.
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Mark Hendrickson - Is it real, or is it Hendrickson?
| year | ip | era | whip | fip | gb% | k/9 | bb/9 | hr/9 | slga |
| 2004 | 183.1 | 4.81 | 1.40 | 4.48 | 45.6 | 4.27 | 2.26 | 1.03 | 0.443 |
| 2005 | 178.1 | 5.90 | 1.55 | 4.63 | 46.2 | 4.49 | 2.47 | 1.21 | 0.503 |
| 2006 | 164.2 | 4.21 | 1.43 | 4.74 | 48.3 | 5.41 | 3.39 | 0.93 | 0.373 |
| 2007 | 27.2 | 1.30 | 0.69 | 2.32 | 58.7 | 7.80 | 1.62 | 0.32 | 0.193 |
Last year, Hendrickson had some decent outings with Tampa Bay, although his peripherals weren't that great. Then he came to the Dodgers, and the wheels came off. The signature moment came late in July when he fell off the mound after a pitch. He wound up in the bullpen, where he had a pretty good September and October. He started this season in the pen, too, but then Jason Schmidt went down.
Hendrickson has been seeing a sports psychologist, and boy, does it seem to have worked. Look at his numbers this season. His ERA is way down, which by itself could be a fluke, but so are his WHIP, FIP, and slugging average against. Like Penny, he's gone from a fly ball pitcher to a strong ground ball pitcher, but unlike Penny, he's also striking a lot of guys out, while giving up neither homers nor walks. Every indicator shows marked improvement. This could very well be real. He needs to continue a little while longer before I'll believe it, but still. Meanwhile, let's have this psychologist have a quiet chat with Wilson Betemit.
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